'Big Short' Investor Explains How the AI Bubble Will Burst

0:00

我們就假設 OpenAI 失敗了。這是有可能的。真·艾斯曼播放的播客主持人。

Let's just imagine that OpenAI fails. Could happen. The host of the Real Eisman Playbook podcast.

0:06

我不知道你怎麼想，但我知道我沒有 1000 億美元來建造數據中心。你可能認識我們的下一位嘉賓，來自《大空頭》。

I don't know about you, but I know that I don't have $100 billion to spend on building data centers. You may know our next guest from The Big Short.

0:14

你的角色。你必須把這個放進去，對吧？我確實必須這樣做。你喜歡這樣被描述。我想這會刻在我的墓碑上。

Your character. You had to work that in there, didn't you? I did have to. You like being described that way. I think it's going to be on my tombstone.

0:20

整個美國會在一夜之間進入衰退。哦，天啊。好的，安德斯先生。

The whole United States of America would go into a recession overnight. Oh, yikes. Okay. Mr. Anders.

0:26

好吧，我會說你瘋了。是的。你瘋了。讓智能編程來模仿一位父親。

Well, I'd have said you're out of your mind. Yeah. You're insane. to get smart programming to impersonate a dad.

0:31

這個行業，儘管已經花費了數千億美元，但……現在加入我們的是史蒂夫·艾斯曼。讓我們請來史蒂夫·艾斯曼。

This industry, despite all the hundreds of billions of dollars that's been spent on it, has... Joining us right now is Steve Eisenman. Let's bring him Steve Eisenman.

0:41

史蒂夫，歡迎回來。你以在其他人之前發現泡沫而聞名。

Steve, welcome back. You are known for spotting a bubble before anyone else does.

0:48

邁克爾·劉易斯為此寫了一整本書。所以我對你的第一個問題是，我們現在在 AI 的位置在哪裡？

Michael Lewis wrote a whole book on it. So my first question to you is, where on earth are we in AI right now?

0:57

有部很棒的電影，肖恩·康納利參演的，我不記得名字了，《尋找福雷斯特》。

There was a great movie with Sean Connery where he played this, I can't remember the name, Finding Forrester.

1:03

我記得年輕角色問了他一個非常複雜的問題。

And I remember the young character asks him a very complicated question.

1:07

他的回答是，當他在吃湯時，他說，這不完全是一個湯的問題。這是一個複雜的問題。

And his response is, as he's eating soup, he goes, it's not exactly a soup question. It's a complicated question.

1:15

我從未忘記那句台詞。我覺得這是電影史上最好的台詞之一。這不是一個湯的問題。這不完全是一個湯的問題，是嗎？

I never forgot that line. I thought it was one of the best lines in the history of movies. It's not a soup question. Not exactly a soup question, is it?

1:23

這是我看待它的方式。這裡的集中風險令人驚嘆。

This is how I look at it. The concentration risks here are awe-inspiring.

1:29

所以如果你退一步，有人對我說，為什麼不分析這家軟體公司？忘掉它的功能。

So if you take a step back and someone said to me, why don't you analyze this software company? Forget about what it does.

1:35

這是一家軟體公司，一家成熟的軟體公司。

It's a software company, an established software company.

1:38

如果結果顯示這家公司有成千上萬的客戶，那就太好了。

And if it turned out that the company had thousands of customers, that would be great.

1:45

如果結果顯示這家公司只有兩個客戶，你會說，我不想投資這個，因為如果其中一個客戶發生了什麼壞事，

If it turned out the company only had two customers, you'd say, I don't want to invest in that because if something bad happens to one of those customers,

1:52

這家公司已經死了，

this company is is dead there's

1:55

整個人工智慧故事中有這樣的情況發生，

something of that going on in the whole ai story so

1:59

我們先從英偉達開始，所以英偉達真棒

let's start just with nvidia so nvidia god

2:02

祝福他們，我擁有這支股票，好吧，當他們報告時，

bless them and i own the stock okay when they reported

2:05

幾週前，我認為收入增長是

a few weeks ago i think the revenue growth was

2:08

大約是110，這很多，所以讓我們稍微退一步，告訴自己等一下，地球上最大的公司，

like it was like 110 it's a lot so so let's just let's just take a step back just for a second and say to ourselves wait a minute the largest company on planet earth

2:19

剛剛有，忘了收益增長，這也很好。僅僅是收入，收入增長超過一百百分比。

just had, forget about earnings growth, which was great too. Just revenue, revenue growth of over a hundred percent.

2:26

這太瘋狂了。所以這會說人工智慧的故事很好，直到你讀到當晚發布的10Q。

Like that's insane. So that would say the AI story is great until you read the 10Q, which came out that night.

2:33

我將通過這樣說來給你的觀眾留下深刻印象，如果你看看它，他們會看到第七條註釋。哦，好吧。好的。

And I'm going to impress your viewers by saying, if you look at it and they go to note seven. Oh, okay. Okay. Yeah.

2:39

第七條註釋說，截至七月底，70%的NVIDIA應收賬款來自五個客戶。

Note seven says that 70% of NVIDIA's accounts receivable as of the end of July came from five customers.

2:49

警告信號。這不是世界末日。警告信號。現在讓我們來看看超級雲端服務商。

Warning flag. Not the end of the world. Warning flag. Now let's go to the hyperscalers.

2:55

你說的是谷歌、Meta、亞馬遜、微軟。

You're talking about Google, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft.

3:01

還有甲骨文，為了更全面。這些大型公司花費巨額資金購買NVIDIA的晶片和其他一切。

And let's throw Oracle in for good measure. Massive companies spending massive amounts of money by buying NVIDIA's chips and everything else under the sun.

3:12

他們的AI

70% of their AI

3:14

收入大約佔他們整個雲收入的25%到30%，完全來自Anthropic和OpenAI。

revenue, which equals something like 25% to 30% of their entire cloud revenue, comes solely from Anthropic and OpenAI.

3:26

對。讓我再說一遍，讓你的觀眾明白。如果你看看——暫時不考慮甲骨文。

Right. Let me just say it again so your viewers get it. If you look at – leave out Oracle for a second.

3:32

微軟、亞馬遜、谷歌，

Microsoft, Amazon, Google,

3:35

他們的AI收入的70%，相當於他們總雲收入的25%到30%，僅來自Anthropic和OpenAI。

70% of their AI revenue, which is equivalent to 25% to 30% of their total cloud revenue, is just from Anthropik and OpenAI.

3:45

如果你去看甲骨文，甲骨文發布了一個數據點叫做RPO，基本上是一種積壓的形式。

If you go to Oracle, Oracle puts out a data point called RPO, which is basically a form of backlog.

3:56

當他們在去年十月報告八月季度的收益時，

when they reported earnings last year in October for their August quarter,

4:04

他們的RPO在三個月內從約1500億美元增長到約4000億美元。這是一個巨大的跳躍。

their RPO went from like $150 billion to like $400 billion in three months. It was a massive jump.

4:10

這是一個巨大的跳躍。我的意思是，人們瘋了。是的，股票也瘋了。

It was a massive jump. I mean, people went insane. Yes. And the stock went crazy.

4:16

它在兩天內從230美元漲到330美元。沒錯。

It went from $230 to $330 like in two days. Yep.

4:21

然後一些非常優秀的賣方分析師，經過一些挖掘，發布了報告，說50%的RPO僅來自OpenAI。

And then some of the sell site analysts who were very good, who did some digging, came out with reports that said 50% of that RPO is just from OpenAI.

4:32

現在，今天，甲骨文的市值超過6000億美元，仍然有50%來自OpenAI。

Now, today, Oracle is over $600 billion, and it's still like 50% is from OpenAI.

4:39

基本上，甲骨文未來收入的50%來自一家虧損嚴重的公司。

Basically, 50% of future revenue of Oracle is from a company that loses money like crazy.

4:47

好吧，這是我想問你的。也許你可以解釋一下這是怎麼回事。

Well, that's what I was going to ask you. Maybe you can explain how this works.

4:51

但從我的角度來看，我不明白這筆錢從哪裡來。我們會談到這個。好的。

But from my perspective, I don't understand where this money is coming from. We're coming to that. Okay.

4:56

讓我完成這個鏈條。現在我們來到Anthropic和OpenAI。

Let me just finish the chain. So now we come all the way now to Anthropic and OpenAI.

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