The full-length interview with Elon Musk | The Economist

0:00

艾隆·馬斯克，非常感謝您加入《內幕》。感謝您讓我們來到特斯拉超級工廠。

Elon Musk, thank you so much for joining me on The Insider. Thank you for having us here at Tesla Giga.

0:05

真的很難在不使用超級詞的情況下介紹您。

It is really hard to introduce you without using superlatives.

0:09

我認為，您在建設未來方面所做的，幾乎超過了當今所有活著的人。

You are doing, I think, more to build the future than literally anybody alive right now. I'm doing a lot of building in general. You're doing a lot of building?

0:17

我想我算是一個本能的建設者。我就是喜歡建造東西。

I'm sort of an instinctive builder, I suppose. I just like building things. You are, but you're building...

0:20

我整天跑來跑去建造東西。您也在建造很多東西。您開創了電動車。

I just run around building things all day long. You run around building a lot of things. You pioneered electric vehicles.

0:27

您徹底改變了太空旅行。您現在擁有尖端的人工智慧模型和人形機器人。

You revolutionized space travel. You've got a cutting-edge AI model now, humanoid robots.

0:33

我們能否通過將這一切整合在一起來開始這次對話？告訴我，如果您成功，世界在十年後會是什麼樣子。

Can we start this conversation by putting all of this together? Tell me what the world's going to be like in, let's say, 10 years, if you succeed.

0:41

十年後，我們談的是2036年。希望我們都能在那時在這裡。

10 years, so we're talking 2036. Yeah. Hopefully, we'll both be around. Hopefully, yes. We can... Probably.

0:49

最有可能的是，我們會在那裡。很難想像未來沒有大量的人工智慧。

Most likely, we will be. It's hard to imagine the future where there's not an overwhelming amount of artificial intelligence

0:59

這意味著在十年後，我預期人工智慧將遠超人類智慧的總和。

meaning like in 10 years I would expect artificial intelligence to be far greater than the sum of human intelligence like far greater

1:09

事實上，我認為人工智慧可能在大約五年內超過人類智慧的總和。

in fact I think AI may exceed the sum of human intelligence in around 5 years

1:16

大約五年是我的猜測，所以人工智慧真的不會有任何事情做得比人類更好，除了作為人類。

roughly 5 years is my guess so there really won't be anything that AI

1:26

除了可能是人類之外，無法超越人類。從更平常的角度來看，生活會是什麼樣子？

can't do better than humans apart from being human perhaps. At a more prosaic level, what will life be like?

1:35

最可能的結果是一個驚人豐富的時代，任何人都可以擁有他們所能想到的任何東西。

The most likely outcome is an age of amazing abundance where anyone can have anything they can think of.

1:46

這聽起來可能荒謬，但好吧，我們現在在2026年。讓我們看看2036年我們的狀況。

This may sound preposterous, but well, here we are in 2026. Let's see where we stand in 2036.

1:54

當然，有一些事情可能會使這一切脫軌，比如一場大規模的全球熱核戰爭或類似的事情。

Now, of course, there are things that could derail this, like a massive global thermonuclear war or something like that.

2:03

但假設沒有第三次世界大戰，我認為我們正朝著一個驚人富裕的時代邁進。

But assuming that there's not World War III, I think we're headed for an age of amazing abundance.

2:09

所以這，我想，是一個對未來充滿樂觀和興奮的訊息。

So this is, I guess, a message of optimism and excitement about the future.

2:18

我們稍後會談談富裕的問題，但首先是一個非常平常的問題。你的公司將如何賺錢？

So we'll talk about the abundance in a second, but just a very prosaic matter. How are your companies going to be making money?

2:23

因為在SpaceX的IPO招股說明書中，似乎絕大部分的收入將來自於AI，實際上是來自Grok。

Because in the SpaceX IPO prospectus, it looked as though the overwhelming amount of the revenue would be coming from AI, from Grok, really.

2:32

它不會像SpaceX現在所做的那樣運送物品到太空。

It won't be transporting things to space, as SpaceX is now doing.

2:37

你的公司在10年後會做什麼？它們將如何賺錢？

What will your companies be doing in 10 years? And how will they make money?

2:44

嗯，你可以真的把經濟視為數位和實體的智慧。

Well, you can really think of the economy as digital and physical intelligence.

2:52

所以我們現在有的正在迅速發展

so what we have right now advancing very rapidly

2:55

顯然是數位智慧，與

is digital intelligence obviously with with

2:58

人工智慧，似乎幾乎是

ai that is uh it seems almost

3:02

隨著每週的推移，人工智慧的突破越來越多，它能做一些以前無法做到的驚人事情，但它仍然在數位領域中受到限制。

with every passing week uh there are more ai breakthroughs that it can do something amazing that it couldn't do before but it's still somewhat confined to the digital realm

3:13

它沒有末端執行器。你需要以人形機器人的形式來獲得末端執行器。

It doesn't have end effectors. You need the end effectors in the form of humanoid robotics.

3:21

你基本上需要很多機器人。

You need basically lots of bots in a nutshell. You need lots of bots.

3:26

然後你可以從僅在數位上顯現的智慧轉向塑造原子。

And then you can go from intelligence manifesting itself only digitally to shaping atoms.

3:37

你會問，什麼是經濟？經濟是商品的生產和服務的提供。

And you say, what is an economy? An economy is the production of goods and provision of services.

3:46

如果你擁有大量的機器人和大量的數位智慧，

And if you have vast numbers of robots with vast amounts of digital intelligence,

3:54

你就擁有一種準無限的經濟。

you have a sort of quasi-infinite economy.

4:02

所以這真的...未來將會與過去非常不同。

So this is really... The future is going to be very, very different from the past.

4:08

沒有，沒有，嗯，沒有

there's there's no um there's

4:11

沒有任何類比或隱喻能夠說明

no analogy or metaphor that i think illustrates

4:15

我們將在這裡經歷的變化的規模

the magnitude of change that we're going to experience here

4:18

我明白這一點，我也在努力

i i i understand that and i'm i'm also trying to

4:21

有點想弄清楚那個世界會是什麼樣子，但我

kind of figure out what that world will look like but but i

4:24

我想這會很好，這將會非常不可思議，是的。

think it'll be good it's going to be pretty incredible yeah

4:27

好吧，我們也會談到一些風險，但首先我們來談談你如何賺錢，因為最終人們購買你的股票是因為他們期望你能賺錢。

well we'll also do there are some risks too we'll come to those but just on on on how then you make money because in the end people are buying your shares because because they expect I want you to make money.

4:37

你賣機器人嗎？我再做一個預測。到2036年，錢將不再重要。你正在觀看我與埃隆·馬斯克的訪談。

Do you sell robots? I'll make another prediction. Money won't matter in 2036. You're watching my interview with Elon Musk.

4:44

如果你想提前獲得其他訪談的訪問權，請點擊上面的鏈接訂閱《經濟學人》。

If you want to get early access to other interviews, subscribe to The Economist by clicking the link above.

4:50

現在回到訪談。我不確定購買你股票的人是否認為到2036年錢將不再重要。

Now back to the interview. I'm not sure that the people who bought your shares think that money won't matter in 2036.

4:58

你想要錢做什麼？

What do you want money for?