Legendary Trader Paul Tudor Jones on AI Risk, Bubbles and Buffett
0:00
我的第一要點是,你將通過長時間跟隨趨勢來賺錢。
My number one bullet point is you're going to make your money by riding a trend for the very, very longest time.
0:06
或者你可以像沃倫·巴菲特那樣,成為那些不願花一毛錢的價值投資者。
Or you can be like Warren Buffett. You can be one of those value investors who won't spend a nickel.
0:13
我曾經年復一年地坐在那裡批評沃倫·巴菲特。
And I used to just sit there and rail on Warren Buffett year after year after year.
0:19
他剛好在對的時間出現在對的地方,抓住了這個牛市。
And he just happened to be in the right place at the right time and caught this bull market.
0:23
我當時在想,天啊,為什麼我不能是沃倫·巴菲特?只要相信美國。
I was just thinking, oh my God, why couldn't I be Warren Buffett? Just believe in America.
0:30
就算你虧損50%,又有誰在乎呢?因為美國會帶你渡過難關。
And just when you're down 50%, who cares? Because America's going to bring you through.
0:35
沃倫,如果你聽到這個,我深感抱歉。
Warren, if you happen to hear this, I'm deeply apologetic.
0:39
你是複利的始祖。
You are the OG of compound interest.
0:57
我們上次見面時談到的某件事讓我發笑。
there was something that we talked about when we last met that made me laugh
1:01
我覺得這是一個有趣的開始我們今天的對話。
and i thought it'd be a fun place to begin our conversation today
1:04
這是關於成為投資者和交易者之間的區別,你提到過你希望能成為一個。
and it was about the difference between being an investor and being a trader and you mentioned something basically saying you wished you could be an
1:11
投資者的生活會如此簡單,我會
investor life would be so easy i'd
1:15
希望你能描述兩者之間的區別以及交易者的生活
love you to describe the difference between the two and the life of a trader
1:18
我保證我會這麼做,並且
i promise i'll do that and
1:21
我們會談論市場、人工智慧以及一切,最後我會問你是否感到娛樂,我敢打賭你會說是的,但
we'll talk about markets and ai and everything and at the end yeah i'll say were you not entertained and i bet you'll say yes but
1:31
在你播客中所有的事情中,我認為最重要的,如果你不介意,我希望從這個問題開始,那就是你在結尾時問每個人的問題。
of all the things that you do on your podcast the one that i think is the most important if you don't mind i'd love to start with that one which is that question you ask every one at the end.
1:42
我參加了。我喜歡這個。原因是因為這太有趣了。
I'm in. I love it. And the reason why is because it's so funny.
1:48
我曾經在現在的孟菲斯羅德斯學院發表過這個畢業典禮演講。
I gave this commencement address one time to what is now Rhodes College in Memphis.
1:54
我記得當我寫這篇演講時,我坐在那裡想,該死,誰給我發表過畢業演講?
I remember when I was writing it, I was sitting there thinking, damn, who gave my commencement address?
2:01
我想不起來。這很有趣。沒有人記得。你能記得誰給你發表過畢業演講嗎?
And I couldn't remember. It was funny. No one remembers. Can you remember who gave your commencement?
2:06
你太年輕了,你可能記得,那是愛爾蘭總統在
You're so young you might it was the president of ireland at
2:09
我去聖母大學的時候,所以你是愛爾蘭人
the time i went to notre dame so and you're irish
2:12
好吧,但這真的很有趣,因為
right okay but it was so funny because
2:15
沒有人記得誰給他們發表畢業演講,因為
no one remembers who gave their commencement address because and
2:18
我在想,天啊,我準備要做這件事已經15年了
i was thinking god i'm getting ready to do this for 15
2:22
或者20分鐘,沒有人會記得任何事情,我該如何讓它變得特別呢?呃,所以在這個播客中,我假設人們
or 20 minutes and no one's going to remember a damn thing how do i make it special uh and so on this podcast i'm assuming people
2:30
聽過數百萬個播客,
listen to millions of podcasts and
2:33
他們可能真的記不住,但
they probably can't really remember but
2:36
其中的一小部分,所以如果他們從這裡記住了什麼
fractions of them so if there's anything they remember from this
2:40
我希望,希望是這一部分。好吧,所有聽眾
i hope i hope it's this part all right so everyone that listens
2:43
都知道問題是:任何人對你做過的最善良的事情是什麼?這是一個很棒的問題,因為最善良的事情也是我非常非常非常早期的
knows that the question is what is the kindest thing that anyone's ever done for you it's such a great question because the kindest thing was also my very very very first
2:54
童年記憶。我可能兩歲半或三歲。
childhood memory. I was probably two and a half or three.
2:59
那大概是1957年,差不多是那個時候。
It was probably 1957, something like that.
3:03
我和我母親在一個叫做Curb Market的地方。
And I was with my mother at this place called the Curb Market.
3:08
然後我和我母親走散了。
And I got separated from my mother.
3:12
天啊,你可以想像兩歲半的孩子和母親走散的情景。
And boy, you can imagine being two and a half years old and separated from your mother.
3:18
你會感到恐懼。然後這位
You're terror stricken. And this
3:21
年長的黑人紳士走過來,我坐在那裡哭得稀里嘩啦,因為我以為我母親離開我了,他問:小男孩,你怎麼了?
elderly black gentleman came up and I was sitting there bawling my eyes out because I thought my mother had left me and said, what's the matter, little boy?
3:33
我說,我失去了我的媽媽。他說,別擔心,我們會找到她的。
And I said, I lost my mama. And he said, don't you worry, we're going to find her.
3:38
然後他抓住我的手,我們開始在過道上走來走去。
And he grabbed my hand and we started walking up and down the aisles.
3:43
那是一個戶外蔬菜市場,我可以,天啊,我幾乎還能聞到水果和蔬菜的味道。
It was an outdoor vegetable market and I can, gosh, I can almost still smell fruits and vegetables.
3:50
我們終於轉過一個角,我看到了我的
We come around the corner finally and I see my
3:53
母親,我非常高興,我的母親看到我,起初她只是開始大笑,我記得她笑得非常開心。
mother and I was so happy and my mother saw me and at first she just started laughing and I remember her, she was laughing so hard.
4:05
所以她過來抱住我,對那位先生說。
So she comes and she gets me and she says to that man.
4:10
她試著給他5美元,這在1957年是一筆巨款。
She tries to give him $5, which was in 1957, a huge amount of money.
4:15
他說,不,女士,我知道你也會為我的孩子這樣做。
And he said, no, ma'am, I know you'd do that for my child too.
4:19
這是一個如此簡單的善行,但當時對我來說卻是如此深刻。
And it was such a simple act of kindness, but it was so profound to me at the time.
4:27
所以那天晚上,我和母親有一個祈禱清單,她每晚都會和我一起
So that night I had a prayer list with my mother that she used to go
4:32
一起念,所以就是上帝,
through with me every night so it'd be god
4:35
祝福媽媽、爸爸、彼得、保羅、阿爾伯塔、格蘭德
bless mama daddy peter paul alberta grande
4:38
皮特和朱迪、利寧和西德和
pete and judy linen and sid and
4:42
然後我們加上了我母親,我說那個人的名字是什麼
then we added my mother i said what was that man's
4:45
她說,我從來沒有得到他的名字,接下來的10
name she goes i never got his name for the next 10
4:48
到12年,祈禱名單上會有那個人,所以每晚大約為那個人祈禱四五千次。
to 12 years right in that prayer list would be that man so probably four or 5,000 reps every night for that man.
4:59
現在,快轉到1986年。
Now, fast forward to 1986.
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