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Kevin O'Leary Reveals His Next Big Bet

0:00
他們無法在這方面成為領導者。舉一個你20年前被屠殺的例子,還有一個最近可能被屠殺的例子。這是一個好問題。
They cannot be leaders in that. Name one that you got slaughtered on 20 years ago, and name one that maybe you got slaughtered on recently. That's a good question.
0:11
我辦公室裡的每個人都說,你到底在幹什麼?我對這件事感到情緒激動。
Everybody in my office said, what the f*** are you doing? I'm getting emotional about remembering this thing.
0:16
他說,凱文,我們對這筆交易擔心了兩年。我現在的評價是三分半,因為你不會得到先生。
He said, Kevin, we've been worried about this trade for two years. I'm in a three and a half, because you don't get Mr.
0:23
免費的美好。整個行業將會受到重創,包括比特幣。
Wonderful for free. That whole sector is going to get crushed, including Bitcoin.
0:28
所以現在我們擁有超過2億美元的卡片。
So now we have over $200 million worth of cards.
0:34
凱文,謝謝你來這裡。很高興能在這裡。真的很感激。我有點想進入主題。我知道你投資很多私營公司。
Kevin, thanks for being here. Great to be here. Really appreciate it. I kind of want to get into it. I know you invest in a lot of private companies.
0:41
我想談談你的上市公司和你在那個領域尋找的不同產業類型。
I want to talk about your public companies and the type of different industries you look for in that world. Yeah.
0:47
所以我從公共方面的基本投資前提開始。
So I start with a basic investment premise on the public side.
0:52
我們有很多持倉,但我很久以前以艱難的方式學到了一種紀律,那就是多樣化的紀律。
We have a lot of positions, but there's a discipline I learned a long time ago the hard way, and it's the discipline of diversification.
1:03
當你是一名股票投資者時,你會情感投入。這是無法阻止的。你開始進行研究。
When you're an investor in stocks, you get emotionally involved. There's no way to stop it. You start to do your research.
1:10
你愛上了一家公司。也許你喜歡CEO。也許你喜歡這個故事。也許你喜歡這個行業,然後你就瘋了。
You fall in love with a company. Maybe you like the CEO. Maybe you like the story. Maybe you like the sector, and you go nuts.
1:17
你不斷買入下跌的股票。你不斷地進行,進行,進行。
You keep buying the dips. You keep going, going, going. The
1:21
這樣的問題是,如果你從歷史上看會發生什麼,即使是最偉大的名字,也會在行業轉型時出現大幅修正。
problem with this is if you look historically at what happens, even to the greatest names, there are massive corrections on sectoral transitions.
1:31
而且你不知道你在時間周期的哪個位置。因此這是規則。
And you don't know where in the time cycle you're involved. So here's the rule.
1:35
任何人的股票不超過5%,任何行業不超過20%。所以你有行業紀律。
No more than 5% in anyone's stock, no more than 20% in anyone's sector. So you have sectoral discipline.
1:43
所以現在人們喜歡MAG-7,或者他們不喜歡MAG-7,無論如何。
So right now people are loving the MAG-7 or they're not loving the MAG-7, whatever it is.
1:48
但在這個規則中,NVIDIA永遠不會超過你投資組合的5%。
But in this rule, NVIDIA is never more than 5% of your portfolio.
1:52
而且所有科技股的總和不超過20%。這迫使你基本上去尋找可能不受歡迎的其他行業。
And all of tech, all of it is no more than 20%. And it forces you to basically go out there and find other sectors that may be out of favor.
2:03
然而,它們會重新回來,而你永遠無法預測何時會發生。
However, they come rolling back in and you can never time when that happens.
2:06
所以我的回報基於這個多樣化的概念。
And so my returns are based on this concept of diversification.
2:12
雖然如果你看看我20年前在做什麼,我並沒有遵循這些規則,結果我被屠殺了。
Although if you looked at what I was doing 20 years ago, I wasn't applying those rules. and I got slaughtered.
2:18
舉一個你20年前被屠殺的股票,還有一個最近可能被屠殺的股票。
Name a stock that you got slaughtered on 20 years ago, and name one that maybe you got slaughtered on recently.
2:25
這是一個好問題。我必須回顧20年前。我告訴你那是什麼。
That's a good question. I have to go back 20 years. I'll tell you what it was.
2:32
我做空了雅虎。我被屠殺了。
I shorted Yahoo. I got slaughtered.
2:37
它被納入標普500,我讓這個持倉,
It got added to the S&P 500, and I let the position,
2:42
這個職位的驚人之處,我永遠不會忘記,是和貝爾斯登一起的。還記得貝爾斯登嗎?
the amazing thing about that position, I'll never forget it, it was with Bear Stearns. Remember Bear Stearns?
2:47
他們不斷打電話給我要求追加保證金,每四個小時一次,因為我每小時虧損三、四百萬。
They kept calling me on margin calls and every four hours because I was losing three, four million an hour.
2:59
如果你還記得那支股票,它的價格從八美元漲到了280美元。真是瘋狂。
If you remember that stock, it went from like eight bucks to $280. It was crazy.
3:05
我不斷投入資產以保護保證金要求。我不想被強制平倉。
And I kept piling in assets to protect the margin call. I didn't want to get called out.
3:12
但這基本上讓我的淨資產幾乎減少了——我記不清了。那是一個巨大的百分比,40%、50%。
But it basically took my net worth down almost by – I can't remember. It was a huge percentage, 40%, 50%.
3:20
然後有一天我在波士頓外的一個叫布雷本的高爾夫球場打高爾夫。
Then one day I was golfing at a golf course called Braeburn outside of Boston.
3:28
我仍然是那裡的會員。我
I'm still a member there. And I
3:32
記得我當時在貝爾斯登的經紀人,他是我很好的朋友,打電話給我說,凱文,我在第八洞。
remember my broker who was at Bear Stearns at that time and was a good friend of mine called me and said, Kevin, I was on the eighth hole.
3:41
我永遠不會忘記這件事。他說,雅虎現在正在崩潰。正在崩潰。
I'll never forget this. He said, Yahoo's collapsing right now. It's collapsing.
3:47
它下跌了20%。而我已經在這件事上待了好幾年。
It's gapping down 20%. And I had been in this thing for years.
3:54
他說,讓我來掩護。我說,去他的,邁克。我們會一直堅持到最後。
And he said, let me cover. I said, fuck it, Mike. We're going to hang in right to the end.
4:01
那支股票全都,抱歉我的語言,但我回憶起這件事時變得情緒激動。
And that stock went all, excuse my language, but I'm getting emotional about remembering this thing.
4:06
他說,凱文,拜託,後台辦公室在求我清除這筆交易。我們已經擔心這筆交易兩年了。
He said, Kevin, please, the back office is begging me to clear this trade. We've been worried about this trade for two years.
4:13
我說,邁克,現在不是時候。如果它在下跌,我們必須等著。
I said, Mike, now's not the time. If it's gapping down, we've got to wait it out.
4:18
所以這同時是我最糟糕的決策和最好的決策,但我再也沒有做空過股票。
So it was both my worst call and my best call all at once, but I never, ever, ever shorted a stock again.
4:29
有趣的是。我從來沒有做空過股票,因為我害怕。因為這是無限的下行風險。
It's funny. I've never shorted a stock, scared of it. Because it's an unlimited downside.
4:34
但我永遠不會忘記我當時的情緒,看到我的淨資產被屠殺的心痛,然後幾年後它又回來了。
But I'll never forget the emotion I had, the gut-wrenching watching my net worth getting slaughtered, and then it came all back years later.
4:44
重點是你不必這樣對自己。你不必這樣對自己。
The point is you don't have to do that to yourself. You don't have to do that to yourself.
4:49
現在我使用的多元化策略,這種情況永遠不會發生。
With the diversification strategy I'm using now, that never happens.
4:57
好吧,我們在你的節目中看到了你,看到你在投資於CEO、公司和產品。
Okay, so we watch you on your show and we see you investing in CEOs and the companies and the products.

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