Brad Gerstner: No AI Bubble, Semis Eat the Nasdaq & AI's Take Off Problem

0:00

我們最喜愛的第五位好友，唯一的布拉德·格斯特納來自Altimeter。

Our favorite fifth bestie in the world, the one, the only Brad Gershner from Altimeter.

0:06

布拉德擁有一段令人難以置信的職業生涯，創辦了五家公司。

Brad has had an unbelievable career starting five companies.

0:10

所以他的心態與傳統對沖基金的人非常不同。

So he's got a very different mentality than your sort of classic hedge fund guy.

0:15

他是一位非常成功的人，投入了大量資金。

He's an amazingly successful guy and he's put up a tremendous amount of money.

0:19

美國每一個孩子，所有7000萬未滿18歲的孩子都應該擁有這些帳戶。

Every child in America, all 70 million kids under the age of 18 deserve to have one of these accounts.

0:26

如果布拉德·格斯特納沒有以絕對的堅持追求，這不會成為法律。

This would not be a law if Brad Gerstner did not pursue it with absolute dogged determination.

0:33

這不是一個計劃。這是一個平台。這是美國歷史上最大的直接慈善解鎖。

This is not a program. This is a platform. It is the largest unlock of direct philanthropy in the history of the country.

0:41

我認為對抗更多社會主義的解藥是更多資本主義。請歡迎布拉德·格斯特納。

I think the antidote to more socialism is more capitalism. Please welcome Brad Gerstner.

1:00

哇。我們走吧。我們走吧。

Wow. Let's go. Let's go.

1:03

謝謝你們，昨天特別感謝你們對特朗普帳戶的支持。

Thank you, guys. And thank you for so much love yesterday, especially on the Trump accounts.

1:09

很多人來了。每個人都明白這對美國意味著什麼。我們正在為美國的靈魂而戰。

So many people came up. Everybody gets what this means for America. We're in a battle for the soul of America.

1:17

7000萬孩子將成為美國的直接擁有者。這就是我們如何打敗資本主義的禍害。

70 million kids are going to be made direct owners in America. That is how we beat the scourge of capitalism.

1:26

我們讓每個孩子都成為資本家。

We make every child a capitalist.

1:32

還有，謝謝昨天所有來到這裡，接受CAC掃描的朋友們，這是我們啟動的心臟病預防中心的心臟掃描。

And also, thank you to all the people yesterday who came up, who took the CAC scan, the heart scan outside from the Center for Heart Attack Prevention, which we started.

1:43

根據這些結果，毫無疑問，我們昨天將拯救一些生命。

There's no doubt based on these results, we're going to save some lives even yesterday.

1:50

這是你在醫療保健中可以做的最高回報投資。

This is the highest ROI thing you can do in health care.

1:55

我與每位心臟病專家交談，他們都為自己、家人和朋友做這個。這是100美元，15分鐘。

Every cardiologist I talk to does this for themselves, their family, and their friends. It's $100, 15 minutes.

2:02

趕快去做。如果我們把這變成心臟的乳腺X光檢查，我們每年將在這個國家拯救50,000條生命。

Get it done. If we turn this into the mammogram for the heart, we'll save 50,000 lives a year in this country.

2:07

這就像每年在美國結束一次烏克蘭戰爭。所以如果你還沒有，去做你的CAT掃描。但今天不是關於這兩個目標。

It's like ending a Ukraine war in America every year. So go get your CAT scan done if you haven't. But today is not about those two moonshots.

2:16

今天有點像我以前在播客中與這些人做的事情，即市場檢查，科技檢查。市場狀況。

Today is kind of a throwback to what I used to do on the pod with these guys, which is a market check, a tech check. State of the market.

2:23

我們現在在哪裡？我們要去哪裡？我們必須相信什麼才能讓市場繼續運作？

Where are we? Where are we going? What do we have to believe to be true in order for the market to continue to work?

2:29

我們將進行一個快速回合。所以請耐心點。拿出你的相機，拿出你的筆記。

We're going to do a bit of a speed round here. So bear with me. Get your cameras out. Get your notes out.

2:35

這裡有一些很好的圖表資料給你們。所以

Some good chart candy in here for you guys. So

2:39

市場今年上漲了15%，自去年1月以來上漲了39%，儘管對關稅、地緣政治和人工智慧監管的擔憂。

markets up 15% this year, up 39% since January of last year, despite all the concerns about tariffs, despite all the concerns about geopolitics, despite all the concerns about AI regulation.

2:52

在記分板上，我們有很多人在好友群組中說過

the scoreboard we have a lot of people in the bestie group who said

2:56

黃金今年的表現將會超乎預期，但比特幣的表現平平。

gold was going to be off the charts this year it's flat bitcoin's

2:59

比特幣下跌10%，但看看我們的NVIDIA收入。

down 10 but look we have nvidia revenue

3:02

將2倍的超級雲端運算資本支出提高2倍，開放

up 2x hyperscaler capex up 2x open

3:06

人工智慧和Anthropic的估值增長了兩倍，SpaceX也增長了兩倍。

ai and anthropics valuation up 2x spacex up two

3:09

在這樣一個不利的背景下，增長了1.5倍，這不是關於倍數擴張，而是由收益驅動的市場擴張。

and a half x in a pretty nasty backdrop this is not about multiple expansion this is an earnings driven market expansion

3:20

我們今年看到倍數收縮，收益增長了26%，當然，這主要是由於人工智慧基礎設施。

We've seen multiple contraction this year. Earnings are up 26%, of course, driven a lot by

3:26

人工智慧基礎設施，但納斯達克和標準普爾的倍數實際上是下降的。

AI infrastructure, but the multiple on the NASDAQ and the S&P is actually down.

3:30

看看NVIDIA，交易價格是明年全稅的差距收益的14倍。

Look at NVIDIA, trading at 14 times next year's fully taxed gap earnings.

3:36

這不是像2000年那樣的泡沫。

This is no bubble like it was in 2000.

3:40

納斯達克、標普、SOX、NVIDIA，所有這些都遠低於它們的平均倍數。

NASDAQ, S&P, SOX, NVIDIA, all trading well below their average multiples.

3:47

好吧，MAG 7基本上與其平均倍數持平，但並不是每個人都在獲利。

okay mag 7 basically in line with its average multiple but not everybody is winning

3:54

在這裡，消費者非必需品、軟體和金融類股的表現都很差。

okay at the bottom here consumer discretionary software financials

3:57

市場的許多部分幾乎沒有變動。

huge sections of the market have barely moved

4:00

對，這是一個由驅動的市場

right this is a market that is being driven by

4:04

有史以來最大的資本支出擴張，最大的超週期，半導體佔納斯達克回報的70%。

the largest capex build out the largest super cycle in the history of technology semiconductors are 70 percent of the nasdaq's return.

4:15

70%的回報。這既好又壞，我們會深入探討。

70% of the return. That's both good and bad, and we'll get into that.

4:19

那麼，誰在賺錢？

So who's making the money?

4:23

代幣的製造者在賺錢，而代幣的買家基本上只是隨波逐流。

The makers of the tokens are making the money, and the buyers of the tokens are basically going along for the ride.

4:29

由於基礎設施市場的緊張，我們有大量的上市公司看起來像風險投資的回報。

Because of the tightness in the infrastructure market, we have massive public companies that look like venture capital returns.

4:42

戴爾上漲5倍，Hinex在短短18個月內上漲9倍。

Dell up 5x, Hinex up 9x in just 18 months.

4:49

我喜歡這張圖表。藍色部分是超級擴展者的資本支出。

I love this chart. In blue, you have the hyperscaler CapEx.

4:54

橙色部分是半導體公司的自由現金流。你注意到了什麼嗎？

In orange, you have the free cash flow of the semiconductor companies. Do you notice anything?

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