Go from $10,000 to $1M in just 3 years

0:00

我該如何將一萬變成一百萬？我們尋找的是能讓你感到震撼的東西。

How would I take 10K and turn it into a million? What we're looking for is something that hits you in the head with like a 2x4.

0:07

我們不需要了解很多事情。我們需要對少數事情有深入的了解。

We don't need to know many things about many things. We need to know a lot about a little.

0:14

你為什麼認為大多數人不這樣做？巴菲特總是說，最重要的問題是，然後呢？

Why do you think most people don't do that? Buffett always says, the most important question to ask is, and then what?

0:21

他會用Excel嗎？沃倫可不會用Excel，明白嗎？

Does he use Excel? Warren wouldn't be caught dead using Excel, okay?

0:26

通常最好的想法是當你終於弄明白時，它們非常簡單。

Usually the best idea is when you finally figure that out, they're very simple.

0:29

你應該能用四到五句話向十歲的小孩解釋股票的論點。

You should be able to explain your thesis of a stock in about four or five sentences to a 10-year-old.

0:35

你甚至不知道該去哪裡找？我會為你詳細說明。這會非常簡單。

Where do you even know where to look? I'm going to lay it out for you. It's going to be so easy.

0:41

所有人需要做的就是……

All someone has to do is...

0:50

好吧，開始了。阿尼什，歡迎回來。第二輪。肖恩，總是很高興見到你。那麼我們來玩個遊戲。你是我的教練。

Okay, here we go. Anish, welcome back. Round two. Sean, it's always a pleasure. So let's play a game. You're my coach.

0:57

你是我的投資教練，假設。我有一萬美元，想把它變成一百萬，對吧？

You're my investing coach, let's say. and I have $10,000 and I want to turn it into a million, right?

1:03

有一個播客叫《我的第一百萬》。我想從一萬變成一百萬。所以這是100倍。我該如何將一萬變成一百萬？

Podcast called My First Million. I want to go from 10K to a million. So that's 100X. How would I take 10K and turn it into a million?

1:10

投資的事情是，機會不會因為你有現金而出現。

The thing about investing is that opportunities are not going to show up just because you have the cash.

1:17

所以我會先對你的思維做一些調整，關於這一萬。我會說，好吧，這一萬是一個好的起點。

So I would make some tweaks to your thinking first about the 10K. So I would say, okay, the 10K is a good starting point.

1:23

但我還希望你在這之外有一份日常工作。是的，好的。

But what I also want you to do separately from that is have a day job. Yeah. Okay.

1:30

我希望你花的錢少於你的收入。我希望你拿出一萬，也希望你拿出你的年度儲蓄。

And I want you to spend less than you're earning. And I want you to take the 10K and I also want you to take your annual savings.

1:40

也許那是每年五千、一萬或其他。通常我會說，把它放進指數裡，對吧？

Maybe that's five, 10,000 a year or whatever it is. And normally I would say, put it into an index, right?

1:47

指數，比如標普500，現在已經過熱。我們現在不能進去。大約在2025年，我們不能進入標普500。

The index, like the S&P is overheated. We can't go there right now. Circa 2025, we cannot go into the S&P. Okay.

1:55

好吧，也許2035年可以，但2025年不行。所以我會把伯克希爾·哈撒韋視為指數。

Okay, maybe 2035 we can, but not 2025. So what I would do is I would treat Berkshire Hathaway as the index.

2:02

所以我會說，目前的默認是你把它，知道的，平均成本投資於伯克希爾B類股，對吧？

So I would just say the default currently is you put it, you know, dollar cost average into Berkshire class B shares, right?

2:11

而且你每天都這樣做。如果我們這樣做，你知道，數學真的很簡單。

And you keep doing that day in, day out. And if we did that, you know, the math is really simple.

2:18

即使我們每年增長10%，對吧？我認為這對伯克希爾來說相當合理。

Even if we were doing 10% a year, right? I mean, which I think is pretty reasonable for Berkshire.

2:25

72法則，我們每七年翻一番。生活就是翻倍。好的。

Rule of 72, we would double every seven years. Life is all about doubles. Okay.

2:31

假設我們有一個二十多歲的家伙，擁有一萬，然後你持續50年或49年。

Let's say we had a 20-something guy with 10,000 and you go for 50 years or 49 years.

2:38

這是七次翻倍。對，好的。七次翻倍是128。好的。

It's seven doubles. Right. Okay. Seven doubles is 128. Okay.

2:47

這是你的錢的128倍。我給了你超過100倍的回報。對，我在49年內給了你128倍。

It's 128 times your money. I gave you more than 100x. Right. I gave you 128x in 49 years.

2:54

不需要成為天才。不用做任何事情，對吧？

Without having to be a genius. Without doing anything, right?

2:57

所以這只是計劃B，我們投入1萬，變成超過100萬，133萬，沒有稅款。

So this is just plan B, where we put the 10,000 in, it becomes more than a million, 1.33 million with no taxes paid.

3:05

對。沒有股息，沒有稅款，什麼都沒有。我們甚至還沒開始計劃A，對吧？這只是靜靜地放著。

Right. There's no dividend, there's no taxes, there's nothing. And we haven't even gotten to plan A yet, right? This is just sitting there.

3:13

現在，另一件事是偶爾會出現一些機會。

Now, the other thing is that every once in a while, there'll be opportunities that show up.

3:19

我們要尋找的是那種像用木板打到你頭上的東西。

And what we're looking for is something that hits you in the head with like a two by four.

3:25

所以最好的投資是那些毫無意義的。你無法理解那些數字。

So the best investments are ones that make no sense. You cannot make sense of the numbers.

3:33

這太好了，簡直不真實。這就是奇怪，所有這些事情。

It's too good to be true. It's just weird and all of those things.

3:38

所以當這些不尋常的事情湊在一起，讓事情變得不合邏輯時，我們就想要進入。

So when these kind of unusual things come together where things don't make sense, that's when we want to dive in.

3:45

給我一個例子，偉大的投資是那些毫無意義的。當下的數字似乎對你來說是錯誤的。

Give me an example of a great investment is one that doesn't make any sense. The numbers just seem wrong to you in the moment.

3:52

好吧，我給你一個例子，這對我來說是賺錢的，但我沒有賺到應該有的3%。

Well, I'll give you one example where it was a moneymaker for me, but I didn't make even 3% of the money I should have.

4:04

好吧，你知道，我的意思是，這就像是擺在我面前的，我卻搞砸了。我仍然賺了錢。對。

Okay. You know, I mean, it was like, it was given to me on a platter and I blew it. I still made money. Right.

4:09

但是，你知道，通常當你最終弄清楚的時候，最好的想法是非常簡單的。

But, you know, usually the best ideas when you finally figure that out, they're very simple.

4:14

所以在那一年，我想大約是2001年或2002年，我遇到了一家名為Frontline的航運公司。

So in the year, I think this was like around 2001 or 2002, I had encountered this shipping company called Frontline.

4:25

Frontline是一家擁有大約75艘超大型油輪的公司。

And Frontline was a company that owned a fleet of about 75 VLCCs, very large crude carriers.

4:37

這些是從沙特阿拉伯運送原油到美國的巨型船隻。

These are giant ships that transport crude from like Saudi Arabia to the US.

4:42

而且它們非常巨大。當時整個全球艦隊有300艘船，300艘超大型油輪。

and they're just huge. The entire global fleet at that time was 300 ships, 300 VLCCs.

4:51

其中75艘由Frontline擁有，佔市場的25%。

75 of them were owned by Frontline, 25% of the market.

4:54

經營Frontline的那個人，約翰·弗雷德里克森，

The guy who ran and was the founder of Frontline, John Fredrickson,

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