I Know Exactly what Regs Hold when they C-Bet

Put yourself in the following scenario. You're playing as big blind and Cutoff makes this giant c-bet on this monotone flop.

What range do you think they represent? Maybe it's a slightly different board and they decide to go for a small c-bet.

What range do you think this represents? Or maybe you're playing up against a fish who decides to bet exactly 100% of the pot.

What range do you think this represents? And more importantly, how do you effectively play against it.

We are going to answer all of that in today's video which

is going to cover some interesting data as well as some poker theory and like all of our videos both of them are going to come together to give you a prescriptive useful strategy that you can start applying.

My name is Gleb, there are a lot of difficult things about running a business but being able to teach advanced poker is the number one reason why I do it.

So thank you for taking the time to watch this video and learn some poker today.

So going back to these two hands, the reason why I chose them specifically is because these are common scenarios that I think a lot of people struggle with.

I think this big pot-sized bet in particular is pretty common to encounter, and a lot of people end up wondering, how wide should I defend against them?

Like, K5 is obviously a defend, but if this player was holding something like a weaker 5x, it's not super clear.

And honestly, the exact same thing goes for this big bet on this monotone board.

In most cases, I think players would just default to overfolding here, which is definitely the right move.

Then again, you're kind of stuck in this weird middle ground where even if you feel like this size is going to be too strong by the population,

the fact that this player is going to be a bit more aggressive puts you in a really difficult spot if you're holding something like a weaker top pair.

That's where the data comes in, because the data paints a beautiful picture of exactly what's happening in all of these uncomfortable spots.

I've taken the time to research everything, process everything, and I'm actually going to teach you that plus some theory today.

Before we get into it, just to give you guys a little bit of a dopamine hit, I'll show how the hand plays out.

So this player ends up checking on the turn, this player checks on the river, and they check back, holding just complete junk.

That's not my hand, but I guess what happened here is that this player is trying to apply max pressure on the flop before giving up, because they're assuming that hero just has way too strong of a range.

I can't help but feel like a river bluff would be pretty good by cutoff, though,

so maybe you guys can let me know in the comments if that's a move that you would make. Okay, so here is the data as promised.

We're going to look at it in three parts. We're going to look at regs in single race pods, before we took a look at regs in 3-bet pods, before we take a look at fish only in single race pods, because they don't really 3-bet all that much.

Right now we're looking at SRP, IPPFR, and OOPPFR.

These ones over here just indicate the size that they use on the flop,

and this S, M, or L show how much stronger they are compared to theory.

We also do have this divided into separate columns. The columns simply measure regs by how aggressive they are.

So this is going to be roughly the one-third of the most passive regs, this is going to be the one-third that are in the middle, and then this is going to be the one-third of the most aggressive regs.

Last thing to note is that the S actually means that they're only a little bit too strong, or they're very close to the solver frequency.

It might be within a one percent underbluff, or something to that extent.

Medium means they're going to be substantially stronger for that size compared to the solver,

and large means they're going to be very strong compared to the solver whenever they bet that big.

So for example, the one-third of the most passive regs are going to be severely under bluffing when they go for a large cbet as the SRP IPPFR.

With that out of the way, let's get to the good stuff, which are the actual patterns from this data.

Right away, there are a few very interesting things happening here.

First and foremost, you can see that on average, bigger bets are going to be under bluffed.

So large flop cbets, around 75% pot, are going to be substantially stronger than smaller cbets, which are around 30% pot.

And the same thing is going to be true when they are the SRP OOPPFR, which is going to be when they're playing a small blind against a big blind caller.

I think that part is pretty obvious if you've been playing the game for at least a little bit of time.

Everybody generally knows that larger cbets are going to be under bluffed, but I guess the biggest

thing that people find surprising about this is that even the most aggressive regs are going to be under bluffing compared to the solver when they're using larger flopsy bets.

For a lot of players, they might expect that aggressive regulars are going to be bluffing a lot more than this data suggests.

According to these charts, even the one-third of the most aggressive regulars are going to be significantly under bluffing whenever they bet anything bigger than around 30% pot on the flop.

This ties into a bit of a mass data secret for you guys, which is the fact that aggressive regulars only start to overbluff on turns and rivers.

Obviously, there's going to be some individuals who are playing like the guy did in that hand that we saw where they're bluffing a lot on the flop and then they're just checking to give up,

but that doesn't represent the overall trend. The overall trend is that even aggressive regulars are going to be underbluffing on the flop and they will start to overbluff on the turn and on the river.