The Contrarian Playbook That Built a 36 Billion Dollar Empire | Bill Ackman
0:00
大家好,歡迎來到投資的聖杯播客。我是托尼·羅賓斯,和我的夥伴兼共同主持人克里斯托弗·祖克在一起。
Hey everyone, welcome to the Holy Grail of Investing podcast. I'm Tony Robbins, along here with my partner and co-host, Christopher Zook.
0:06
想想一個你無法想像在未來10、20、30年中不會變得更大和更有利可圖的企業。
Think about a business that you can't envision a world in which that business is not bigger and more profitable 10, 20, 30 years from now.
0:13
買下那家公司並擁有它。今天,我們有一位傳奇嘉賓,我知道你會喜歡這次對話。
Buy that company and own it. Today, we have a legendary guest in a conversation I know you're going to love.
0:18
比爾·阿克曼是普申廣場資本管理公司的創始人兼首席執行官,這是過去二十年來最具影響力和最受關注的投資者之一。
Bill Ackman is the founder and CEO of Pershing Square Capital Management, one of the most influential and closely followed investors probably over the last two decades.
0:26
如今大多數投資者都非常注重短期,因為這樣可以彌補,或者他們有這樣的風險管理。
Most investors today are very short-term focused because they can compensate that way or they have risk management that way.
0:31
這種對記憶芯片的FOMO情緒,因為那是所有金錢都在流入的地方。
This FOMO thing about I want to be in memory chips because that's where all the money is being made.
0:35
長期資本是理想的,但永久資本要好得多。
Long-term capital is ideal, but permanent capital is a whole lot better.
0:39
這樣做的結果是為能夠有長期觀點的投資者創造了機會。大多數人只考慮多樣化。
What that does is it creates the opportunity for an investor that can have a long-term view. Most people think about just diversification.
0:45
你願意成為那個積極參與者。典型的投資者會說,我不喜歡管理,所以我要找別的東西。
You've been willing to be that active participant. The typical investor will say, I don't like management, so I'm going to find something else.
0:52
我們看到這樣的情況。我們說,看看,我們可以從那些因為相信情況永遠不會改變而出售的人那裡購買。然後我們可以實現變革。
We see a situation like that. We say, look, we can buy from people selling because they believe the situation will never change. And then we can effectuate change.
0:58
你將一個封閉式基金上市,然後同時將你的管理公司上市。
You took a closed-end fund public, and then you took your management company public at the same time.
1:03
而且你實際上給了那些投資封閉式基金的人一部分管理公司的股份。這是關於民主化的。
And you actually gave people who bought into the closed-end fund a piece of the management company. This was about democratization.
1:08
這是唯一一家上市的對沖基金。你在CNBC上發表過非常著名的評論。我知道你記得。地獄即將來臨。
This is the only publicly traded hedge fund. You made a very famous comment on CNBC. I know you remember. Hell is coming.
1:15
當我上電視時,馬克下跌了6%,而我下電視時已經下跌了10%。與此同時,我上電視說,我們在買股票,而不是賣。
Mark was down 6% when I went on, and it was down 10 by the time I got off. Meanwhile, I went on TV to say, we're buying stock, not selling.
1:21
如果你要給一兩條建議給那些真的想要積累財富的人,那會是什麼?
If you were going to give one or two pieces of advice to someone who's really trying to build wealth, what would they be?
1:32
比爾以願意採取反對意見而聞名,當共識不一致時,他堅持自己的信念。
Bill's known for his willingness to take on the contrarian view, maintain his conviction when consensus disagrees,
1:38
並且根據非凡的研究和理解深度進行集中投資。
and really make concentrated investments based on an extraordinary depth of research and understanding.
1:44
而且他的投資回報,如你所知,已經非常驚人。今天,
And his investment returns, as you'll learn, have been extraordinary. Today,
1:48
我們將討論比爾如何看待風險和下行的重要性,
we're going to discuss how Bill thinks about risk and downside, the importance
1:51
長期投資、主動擁有,以及公共和私人市場的演變,以及投資者可以從那些真正願意獨立思考的人那裡學到什麼。
of long-term investing, active ownership, and the evolution of public and private markets, and what investors can learn from someone who's really willing to think a bit independently.
2:02
所以,比爾,首先,你是這個行業的傳奇,見到你真是太高興了。謝謝你參加我們的播客。是的,很高興能來這裡。謝謝。
So, Bill, first of all, you're a legend in the business, and it's just a pleasure to meet you. Thanks for joining us on the podcast. Yeah, delighted to be here. Thank you.
2:09
聽著,你的投資哲學一直是人們所讚賞的,你能夠從人群中脫穎而出。
Listen, your investment philosophy has always been something that people have stood out for, your ability to stand out from the crowd.
2:17
但在我們進入這一點以及你評估風險的方式之前,我們喜歡先了解一些背景。
But before we get into that and the way you evaluate risk and so forth, we like to start out with a little background.
2:22
每個人都知道某人的背景,某種程度上說是他們的起源故事。
Everybody knows someone's background, kind of their origin story, so to speak.
2:25
我記得讀過一個關於你的故事,裡面說你打賭你的父親,我想是你的成人禮錢,幾千美元,你會在SAT考試中獲得完美的800分。
And I remember reading a story about you where they said you bet your father, I think it was your bar mitzvah money, for a couple thousand dollars of money that you would get a perfect 800 score in the SAT.
2:36
所以聽起來你在生活早期就有一些自信。如果可以的話,告訴我們一下那個故事,以及34年前是什麼讓你開始進入金融行業的?
So it sounds like you've had some confidence early in life. Tell us a little bit, if you would, about that story, but also what really started you out in the financial business almost 34 years ago?
2:46
那麼是什麼吸引你進入這個行業的呢?是數字嗎?還是你認識的人?
So what pulled you to it? Was it numbers? Was it people you knew?
2:50
我們很好奇你是如何開始朝著今天這條路邁進的。
We're curious to know how you kind of started out to move in the direction of the path where you are today. Sure.
2:55
首先談談那個故事,我是一個相當自負的孩子。
So first on the story, I was a pretty cocky kid.
2:59
在我考SAT的前一年,他們發布了幾個SAT考卷。所以我參加過這些考試。
And then the year before I did the SAT, they released a couple of SATs. So I had taken them.
3:05
所以我對自己的表現有相當好的預測。我跟我爸爸打賭,我的口語部分會一直拿到滿分。
So I had a pretty good idea how I was going to do. And I bet my dad, but I would consistently do perfect on the verbal.
3:13
但我在數學部分卻錯了幾道題。所以我跟我爸爸打賭,我的口語部分會得800分,因為我覺得這是必勝的把握。
And like I somehow miss a few questions on the math. So I bet my dad that I get 800 on the verbal because I thought it was kind of a lock.
3:20
我有2000美元,這是我生活中的積蓄,更多是來自零工,而不是巴爾米茲瓦的錢。
And I had $2,000, which was my kind of life savings, more from odd jobs than from bar mitzvah money, I would say.
3:30
在考試的前一個星期五,我爸爸取消了這個賭注。哦,哇。
And the Friday before the Saturday of the test, my dad canceled the bet. Oh, wow.
3:38
那是出於憐憫的決定嗎?我想他擔心自己會輸,而2000美元對他來說是真正的錢。
Was that a mercy decision? I think he was worried he was going to lose and $2,000 was real money.
3:45
當時,我爸爸是一位成功的人,但他是一位抵押貸款經紀業的企業家。
And at the time, my dad was a successful guy, but he was an entrepreneur in the mortgage brokerage business.
3:53
他有幾年我們沒有賺到錢,而87年我考試的那年,對他來說是個糟糕的年份。
And he had a couple of years we didn't make any money. And the 87, which is when I took that test, was like a bad year.
4:02
不,並不是87年。應該是83年。那年在房地產行業並不好。
No, it wasn't 87. It would have been 83. It was not a good year in the real estate business.
4:08
我想他是想輸掉2000美元。反正,我最後只錯了一道題。
And I think he went to lose $2,000. And anyway, I ended up getting one question wrong.
4:13
所以我其實很高興他有這樣的故事,關於投資的部分。
So I was actually very happy that he that's that story in terms of investing.
4:19
所以我在大學畢業後,去我爸爸的房地產小公司工作。
So I actually after after college, I went to work for my dad and his kind of real estate, you know, little boutique.
4:27
我在賣辦公大樓,安排融資,做這些事情。
And I was selling office buildings, arranging, financing, things like this.
4:35
在我看來,享受更多樂趣的人是那些進行投資的人,而不是提供服務的人。
And it seemed to me that the people having more fun were the people making the investments as opposed to the people, you know, providing the service, if you will.
4:42
那種投資銀行家的類型。有一次我對我爸爸說,我真的想學習如何成為一名投資者。
the kind of investment banker type. And at one point I said to my dad, I said, look, I'd really like to learn how to be an investor.
4:50
那麼,你的朋友圈裡誰是一位好的投資者呢?
And, you know, who's a good investor in your friend group?
4:54
他推薦了一位名叫倫納德·馬克斯的人,他說這是一位出色的股市投資者。
And he recommended the guy by the name of Leonard Marks, who was, he said, was a fantastic stock market investor.
4:57
我去見了這個人,他建議我讀一本書,一本著名的書,班·格雷厄姆的《智慧型投資者》。
And I went to see this guy and he recommended I read a book, you know, kind of a famous book, Ben Graham's Intelligent Investor.
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