I'm 80 and I wasted 25 years of my life. Don't make my mistake. - Howard Marks

If you wait until you have nothing to be afraid about, probably the opportunity has passed.

Howard, it's good to see you again. We had a lot of fun last time and we were like, look, I don't know if other people are going to like that, but we loved that.

And then over a million people listened to the last one. And so this morning I was reading, you wrote this blog post about how you changed your mind about AI.

You had written, I don't know, a couple months back about the possibility of an AI bubble.

And then as a good thinker tends to do, you got new facts. You sort of reassessed the situation.

You wrote a new post about AI. Do you want to summarize the story of how you changed your mind on AI? Well, the story is very simple.

I have this son named Andrew. He's a VC. He's dealing with AI every day. His companies use AI.

Some of them create AI, et cetera. I had written the first memo around December 9th, as I recall.

And then in early February, he said, Dad, so much has happened. You have to update the memo.

And so I rewrote the memo entirely. I was rereading one of your old books.

And you repeat this phrase a bunch, which is like, it's important to be rational.

And you can't get seduced into thinking something is a good idea because that's when smart people can make bad decisions when you get emotional about something.

But then when I was reading part two, I was reading it and I was like, Howard, you sound a little seduced.

You sound a little seduced. You sound like you're into this. Are you at all approaching this in an emotional way, you think?

It depends on your definition of emotional. I upgraded

my opinion of AI and

its potential because its ability

to talk about its own strengths and weaknesses,

to use humor, to put information in the context of me, to use what it knows about me.

And you know, this is really exceptional stuff.

There's a quality to AI, or more than one quality, which are unprecedented, in my opinion.

The first, the obvious one, is autonomy.

All the other technological innovations, from the railroad to computers to the internet, etc.,

were all tools or things to speed up and increase productivity.

There's never been anything with the quality of autonomy.

The idea that you can give it a job and not tell it how to do it, and it'll figure it out, is really unique.

And what comes with that, of course, is this nagging concern that it may take over.

So that's really important. The other thing,

and this is not kind of quantifiable, is there's never been anything, in my opinion, so unpredictable.

I don't think anybody knows the shape of the future. So I've never had that sense before.

I never thought that the Internet, for example, was beyond comprehension or beyond prediction.

Do you think that AI will be able to do what you do?

And I know you talk about this in the memo. And

I got to be honest, when I read it, I almost

felt like you read stories about Warren Buffett reading the Moody's Manual page by page, 800 companies and trying to digest that information.

Well, AI can do that in a heartbeat, right? A lot of the things that go into making investment decisions, it can do very well, very fast.

And then also, it's advancing so fast. So whatever we thought it could do three years ago is laughable compared to what it can do today, and as you pointed out, even three months ago.

So I guess in your heart of hearts, do you think in the future, the next Howard Marks is not a human, but maybe a human with AI or just AI?

Everything I say on the subject I preface with, I'm no expert, but.

I think I told the story in the memo about the fact that indexation

put a lot of people out of the equity business because it disclosed that they couldn't do what they claimed to do.

And most active equity investors underperformed the averages.

and AI will unfrock or defrock another group of people

whose talents are not as great as they purport. I used to say about computers.