Paul Tudor Jones WARNS: The U.S. Economy Looks Like 1999 AI Risks & Oil Surge | CNBC

0:00

歡迎回到 Squawk Box。今天早上我們在曼哈頓中城的好牧人服務中心，這是一個羅賓漢基金會的受益者。

Welcome back to Squawk Box. This morning we are in Midtown Manhattan at Good Shepherd Services, which is a beneficiary of the Robin Hood Foundation.

0:07

現在加入我們的是傳奇投資者保羅·都鐸·瓊斯的獨家訪談。他當然是都鐸投資公司的創始人和首席投資官。

Joining us right now in an exclusive interview is legendary investor Paul Tudor Jones. Of course, he's the founder and chief investment officer of the Tudor Investment Corporation.

0:14

他也是羅賓漢基金會的創始人和董事會成員，該基金會下週將舉辦年度投資者會議。

He's also, of course, the founder and board member of the Robin Hood Foundation, which is hosting its annual investor conference next week.

0:22

你們的陣容非常強大，很高興見到你。順便說一下，很高興來到好牧人服務中心，這是羅賓漢長期支持的基金會。

You've got a huge lineup, and it's great to see you. And by the way, great to be here at Good Shepherd Services, which is a foundation that Robin Hood has long supported.

0:31

我們已經支持他們超過 30 年了。他們在紐約市的非營利組織中就像科比或沙克一樣。

We've supported them for over 30 years. They're kind of like the Kobe or the shack of not-for-profits in New York City.

0:40

他們服務 30,000 名孩子。真是一個卓越的組織。

They serve 30,000 kids. Just a spectacular organization.

0:44

我第一次見到他們時，是由保萊特修女負責的。如果你見到她，你會想要擁抱她。

I first met them, and it was run by Sister Paulette. And if you met her, you would want to hug her.

0:50

她真的是最聰明、最有愛心、最溫暖的人。她說她已經退休了，但其實並沒有。

She was just the most brilliant, loving, warm human being. And she says she's retired, but she's not.

0:58

她仍然在工作，並且有新的想法。

She's still working and has new ideas.

1:02

而現在負責這個地方的米歇爾經常和她一起玩接球。所以這是一個很棒的地方。

And Michelle, who runs the place now, plays catch with her all the time. So it's a great place.

1:08

而且，最棒的就是這個地方，它堅信，孩子的環境並不決定他們的未來。

And, again, the best thing about this is this place, it believes so firmly as we do, a child's circumstance does not determine their future.

1:20

我想談談紐約市的慈善事業、羅賓漢和這次會議，但如果你願意，我想談談市場。當然。

I want to talk philanthropy in New York City and Robin Hood and this conference as well, but I want to talk markets, if you'd indulge me. Sure.

1:27

因為今天早上有銀行收益報告要發布。但我回想起大約一年前我們的對話。

Because we have bank earnings coming out this morning. But I was thinking back to a conversation that we had about a year ago around this same time.

1:35

我曾經問過你，你認為我們在市場周期的哪個階段？

And I had said something to the effect to you of where do you think we are in the market cycle?

1:41

你曾經說過，可能就像 1999 年一樣。

And you said something to the effect of maybe it's like 1999.

1:46

但記得在 1999 年之後，市場仍然上漲了 40%。

but remember that the market still went up another 40% after 1999.

1:52

所以我們現在已經過了一年。你認為我們現在真的在哪裡？

So here we are a year later. Where do you think we really are?

1:56

天啊，這裡仍然感覺像 1999 年，一個雙速市場。

Boy, it still feels like 1999, a two-speed market.

2:01

你完全、完美地將其分開了

You've got it completely, perfectly bifurcated

2:05

在於明顯有一切正在採用 AI 的事物和那些沒有的事物，它們正朝著相反的方向發展。

in the sense that you have obviously everything that's adopting AI and everything that's not, and they're going in opposite directions.

2:13

這在 1999 年的情況幾乎也是如此。我告訴你，那時真是瘋狂。

And that was pretty much the case in 1999. I'll tell you, it was so crazy.

2:18

我大約一周前參加了這個會議。我們在討論，這讓你想起了什麼時期？

I did this conference about a week ago. And we were going through, you know, what period does this remind you of?

2:27

我們在談論 1999 年。所以我問會議上的每個人，我說，這裡有多少人在 1999 年進行交易？

And we're talking about 1999. So I asked everyone at the conference, I said, how many of you here were trading in 1999?

2:36

那裡大約有 200 人。你認為有多少百分比在 1999 年進行交易？哦，天哪。

There's probably 200 people there. What percent do you think were trading in 1999? Oh, goodness.

2:41

我想著你問的方式，我會說 10%。實際上是 20%。我想，哦，天哪。

I'm thinking just the way you're asking, I'm going to go with 10%. It was about 20%. I thought, oh, my gosh.

2:48

因為對我來說，這一切都非常明確，我們再次走在這條路上，短期內可能會很棒，但長期來看可能不會那麼好。

Because for me, it's just so clear that, again, we're on this path that could be great short term but may not be so great long term.

3:01

我只是忘了，我想我在自嘲。

And I just was, I forget, I guess I'm dating myself.

3:07

我忘了很多人沒有經歷過這一切。但你在1999年做什麼？1999年你幾歲？

I forget that so many people haven't lived this. But what were you doing in 1999? How were you in 1999?

3:14

在1999年，我剛從大學畢業。我在為《紐約時報》撰寫有關併購的文章，那是併購業務的繁榮高峰期。

In 1999, I was just graduating from college. I was writing about mergers and acquisitions, the height of the boom in the M&A business for the New York Times.

3:24

這就是我當時的情況。那是一段非常特別的時光。

That's what I was doing. And this was a heck of a time.

3:28

所以無論如何，我們在某種意義上與1999年完全相似，因為我們有一種雙速經濟。

So anyway, we are literally exactly like 1999 in the sense that we have kind of a two-speed economy.

3:36

但這對你來說意味著什麼？我記得你說過市場仍有40%的上漲空間。

But does that mean to you, again, I remember you saying this idea that the market still has 40% to run.

3:43

這是否意味著在這個事情達到頂峰方面，我們仍然需要幾年還是幾個月？

Does that mean that in terms of this thing cresting, we are still years away or we're still months away?

3:50

因此，你會如何交易這個？所以我

And therefore, how do you trade that? So I

3:55

認為對於

think that for

3:57

我來說最有趣的事情，而我很難在專業上看到超過12月31日的事情，因為那將會非常重要。

me the most interesting thing, and it's hard for me to see professionally much beyond December 31, because that's going to be really important.

4:06

顯然對於一個基金來說。所以我正在嘗試戰略性地思考我想在今年剩下的時間裡做什麼。

obviously for a fund. So I'm trying to tactically think what I want to do for the rest of the year.

4:13

顯然，如果你回顧一下中期選舉周期，各種各樣的事情，會告訴你我們應該會有一個非常非常強勁的第四季度，從中期選舉中走出來。

Clearly, if you kind of just go back and look at midterm cycles, a whole variety of things, it would tell you that we should have a really, really strong fourth quarter coming out of the midterms.

4:25

市場通常在十月下旬或十一月初觸底，然後你會看到第四季度的推動。

The market typically bottoms sometime late October, early November, and then you get the fourth quarter push.

4:32

我有點看著定位，認為這是非常可能的。

I kind of look at positioning and think that's very possible.

4:38

同時，如果我在思考一年後，2027年將對股市非常非常具有挑戰性。

At the same time, if I was thinking for a year from now, 2027 is going to be really, really challenging for the stock market.

4:50

我這麼說是因為如果我只是看流入流出，

And I say that because if I just look at the flows,